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results:projectoutcomes [2020/06/15 10:44] – [Stakeholder] pasbresults:projectoutcomes [2020/06/16 23:21] (current) – [Contribution to other project] pasb
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 //indicate here mostly outreach or large audience synthesis, contributions to international WCRP or Future Earth working groups,  or others pacmedy contributions to new national call for example or product that will use outside the community targetted by this JPI-Bemont call (database and publications are in outputs) //indicate here mostly outreach or large audience synthesis, contributions to international WCRP or Future Earth working groups,  or others pacmedy contributions to new national call for example or product that will use outside the community targetted by this JPI-Bemont call (database and publications are in outputs)
 // //
-  * Contribution to WCRP grand challenge on Climate sensitivity, circulation and clouds  
-  * Contribution to WCRP grand challenge on Weather and Climate Extremes 
-  * Participation in WCRP lighthouse activities workshop 
  
-PACMEDY observational and modeling activities have contributed to WCRP grand challenge discussions on the climate sensitivity, vegetation climate feedbacks (carbon feedbacks) and climate extremes in the South American Monsoon System (SAMS).  +==== Contribution to WCRP science objectives, grand challenges and ongoing implementation plan ==== 
 +=== Key results of interest for WCRP science objectives === 
 +PACMEDY observational and modeling activities have contributed to WCRP grand challenge discussions on the climate sensitivity, vegetation climate feedbacks (carbon feedbacks) and climate extremes in the South American Monsoon System (SAMS).  
 + 
 • IPCC models have been able to reproduce some important characteristics of the SAMS variability in the last Holocene, such as major seesaw patterns the east/west and north/south features (NE Brazil x Amazon and NE Brazil x South/Southeastern Brazil).  • IPCC models have been able to reproduce some important characteristics of the SAMS variability in the last Holocene, such as major seesaw patterns the east/west and north/south features (NE Brazil x Amazon and NE Brazil x South/Southeastern Brazil). 
 +
 • The centennial variability reported in the proxy data is present in some PMIP models. The fact that these models produce centennial variability without solar forcing is indicative of long term cycles related to internal variability of the ocean/atmosphere/biosphere nonlinear coupling.   • The centennial variability reported in the proxy data is present in some PMIP models. The fact that these models produce centennial variability without solar forcing is indicative of long term cycles related to internal variability of the ocean/atmosphere/biosphere nonlinear coupling.  
 +
 • Theoretical studies conducted by the PACMEDY group provides support to the idea that nonlinear interactions in the climate system can promote energy transfer from interannual, annual and even shorter time scales, such as the intraseasonal, up to much longer periods, such as decadal, multidecadal and longer timescales. These theoretical results have important implication in future model development and raise further applicability of the high time resolution proxy data. • Theoretical studies conducted by the PACMEDY group provides support to the idea that nonlinear interactions in the climate system can promote energy transfer from interannual, annual and even shorter time scales, such as the intraseasonal, up to much longer periods, such as decadal, multidecadal and longer timescales. These theoretical results have important implication in future model development and raise further applicability of the high time resolution proxy data.
  
-  * Contribution to PAGES working group : +=== Contribution to WCRP grand challenges === 
 + 
 + * Climate sensitivity, circulation and clouds  
 + 
 +Contribution to workshops and major publications of the grand challenge : 
 + 
 +. Hydrological cycle and monsoon : 
 + 
 +Biasutti, M., Voigt, A., Boos, W. R., Braconnot, P., Hargreaves, J. C., Harrison, S. P., Kang, S. M., Mapes, B. E., Scheff, J., and Schumacher, C.: Global energetics and local physics as drivers of past, present and future monsoons, Nature Geoscience, 11, 392, 2018. 
 + 
 +. Climate sensitivity :  
 + 
 +S. Sherwood, M. J. Webb, J. D. Annan, K. C. Armour, P. Forster, J.C. Hargreaves, G. Hegerl, S. A. Klein, K. D. Marvel, E. Rohling, M. Watanabe, T. Andrews, P. Braconnot, C.S. Bretherton, G. L. Foster, Z. Hausfather, A. S. von der Heydt, R. Knutti, T. Mauritsen, J. Norris, C. Proistosescu, M. Rugenstein, G. A. Schmidt, K. B. Tokarska, M. D. ZelinkaSherwood et al., A combined assessment of Earth’s climate sensitivity, in revision   
 + 
 +  * Contribution to WCRP grand challenge on Weather and Climate Extremes 
 + 
 +  * Participation in WCRP lighthouse activities workshop 
 + 
 +The project results and the identification of missing gaps were considered at the workshop organised by WCRP to define future lighthouse activities as part of the implementation of the new strategic plan.  
 + 
 +See: [[https://www.wcrp-climate.org/wcrp-ip-docs]] 
 + 
 +==== Contribution to PAGES working group ====  
  
 PAGES-SISAL. PACMEDY has supported the creation of the PAGES SISAL working group database. This is a global compilations of δ18O and δ13C records from speleothems that can be used to document climate changes over the Holocene and on glacial-interglacial timescales. PACMEDY has also supported workshops of the PAGES SISAL working group to discuss and promote analyses of these data. The first version of the SISAL database was published in Earth System Science Data (see project publications) and the second version of the database is currently in ESSD Discussions. PAGES-SISAL. PACMEDY has supported the creation of the PAGES SISAL working group database. This is a global compilations of δ18O and δ13C records from speleothems that can be used to document climate changes over the Holocene and on glacial-interglacial timescales. PACMEDY has also supported workshops of the PAGES SISAL working group to discuss and promote analyses of these data. The first version of the SISAL database was published in Earth System Science Data (see project publications) and the second version of the database is currently in ESSD Discussions.
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 PACMEDY played a key role in the PMIP4 working group on "Past2Future: insights from a constant varyingly past". This included substantial participation in a London Workshop in May 2019. PACMEDY ended up leading two of the key papers emerging from the workshop.  PACMEDY played a key role in the PMIP4 working group on "Past2Future: insights from a constant varyingly past". This included substantial participation in a London Workshop in May 2019. PACMEDY ended up leading two of the key papers emerging from the workshop. 
  
-  * large audience publications +==== large audience publications ==== 
    
 +The project has produced several contributions to newsletters or large audience publications
  
-PAGES newsletters +[[results:largeaudiencepublication|Large audience publications]]
  
-Harrison, S.P., 2017. The big data revolution and paleoecology. Past Global Changes Magazine 25: 96-97. 
- 
-Comas-Bru, L., Deininger, M. Harrison, S.P., Bar-Matthews, M., Baker, A., Duan, W. and Stríkis, N., 2017. Speleothem synthesis and analysis working group. Past Global Changes Magazine 25: 129, DOI:10.22498/pages.25.2.129.  
- 
-Harrison, S.P., Stocker, B.D., Klein Goldewijk, K., Kaplan, J.O., Braconnot, P., 2018. Do we need to include anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes in paleoclimate simulations? Past Global Changes Magazine 26, https://doi.org/10.22498/pages.26.1.4.  
- 
-Harrison, S.P., Gaillard, M.-J., Stocker, B.D., 2019. Co-designed paleo experiments on land-cover and land-use change impacts. Past Global Changes Magazine 27, doi.org/10.22498/pages.27.1.38  
  
      
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 The wake of the negationist trend on climate change raised the stakeholders interest of the renewable energy and agribusiness sectors in Brazil on evidence of significant climate variability in the past. The fact that 21th Century future climate projections indicate scenarios that have not been reported in the recent instrumental era raises the question: how was the past climate, well before the instrumental records?   Did we observe long term droughts or floods in areas where these events are sporadic?  Was the “normal” climate in long periods in the past similar to what is now considered as an extreme situation?   The wake of the negationist trend on climate change raised the stakeholders interest of the renewable energy and agribusiness sectors in Brazil on evidence of significant climate variability in the past. The fact that 21th Century future climate projections indicate scenarios that have not been reported in the recent instrumental era raises the question: how was the past climate, well before the instrumental records?   Did we observe long term droughts or floods in areas where these events are sporadic?  Was the “normal” climate in long periods in the past similar to what is now considered as an extreme situation?  
  
-Research indicates that models can reproduce important features of the past climates thus rendering confidence in their ability to project the future.  As a result,  researchers involved in paleoclimate studies, such as PACMEDY (in Brazil, in particular, at the CPTEC/INPE and the IAG/USP groups) have been heavily involved in talks, meeting with the renewable energy and agribusiness sectors using recently acquired knowledge on the climate variability, primarily concerning probability of occurrence of long term (decadal) changes in the climate statistics.  As an example,  +Research indicates that models can reproduce important features of the past climates thus rendering confidence in their ability to project the future.  As a result,  researchers involved in paleoclimate studies, such as PACMEDY (in Brazil, in particular, at the CPTEC/INPE and the IAG/USP groups) have been heavily involved in talks, meeting with the renewable energy and agribusiness sectors using recently acquired knowledge on the climate variability, primarily concerning probability of occurrence of long term (decadal) changes in the climate statistics.  As an example :  
 +  
 • the wet climate trend in Southern Brazil, Northeast Argentina, Paraguay and the dry trend with long (approximately 7 years) drought in northeast Brazil, with decreasing intensity towards Southeast Brazil since 2011 (culminating with the major 2013/14 drought episode) and  • the wet climate trend in Southern Brazil, Northeast Argentina, Paraguay and the dry trend with long (approximately 7 years) drought in northeast Brazil, with decreasing intensity towards Southeast Brazil since 2011 (culminating with the major 2013/14 drought episode) and 
 +
 • the extreme droughts and floods in the Amazon in the last 15 years  have raised tremendous concern in the renewable energy and agribusiness.  Meetings were called in order to answer questions concerning predictability of these events, probability of occurrence in the future and whether these extreme events were observed in the past and if the IPCC climate scenarios for the 21 Century are realistic or not, considering the earth’s past history. • the extreme droughts and floods in the Amazon in the last 15 years  have raised tremendous concern in the renewable energy and agribusiness.  Meetings were called in order to answer questions concerning predictability of these events, probability of occurrence in the future and whether these extreme events were observed in the past and if the IPCC climate scenarios for the 21 Century are realistic or not, considering the earth’s past history.
  
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   * Contribution to the international Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project    * Contribution to the international Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project 
 +Contribution to PMIP working groups : Warm periods (for the Holocene), Past2000k (for the last millennium), Data (for data synthesis and model-data comparisons) and past to future and Variability (for the analyses of monsoon trend and variability). 
 +The project contributed to the protocoal papers for the CMIP4-CMIP6 simulations, and provided a leadership for the synthesis of the midHolocene PMIP4 simulations. These contributions are part of the PMIP-CMIP6 special issue in Global Model Developement ([[https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html]] and the PMIP4 special between Global Model Development and Climate of the Past ([[https://www.clim-past.net/special_issue888.html]]
   * Contribution to the German BMBF PALMOD project    * Contribution to the German BMBF PALMOD project 
   * Contribution to the German BMBF ROMIC project   * Contribution to the German BMBF ROMIC project
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